The Thesis

INTRODUCTION

Gulf Alternatives is a United Arab Emirates–headquartered investment manager providing institutional-grade solutions to sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and high-net-worth allocators globally. Our investment focus is Dubai’s commercial real estate, the city’s most resilient and lucrative asset class. Dubai combines:
• Structural yield advantage versus global peers
• A deep and liquid transaction market (~$500m traded daily)
• A zero-tax, dollar-pegged jurisdiction with strong property rights
• Policy stability and sovereign balance sheet support
This thesis outlines why Dubai, and why now, is the moment to access commercial real estate in the emirate. It presents evidence across wealth migration, foreign direct investment, supply-demand dynamics, liquidity, and governance. The analysis demonstrates how institutional capital can capture double-digit, dollarized yields with flexible exit optionality.

WHY DUBAI, WHY NOW

Dubai’s meteoric rise as a global wealth hub is evident in its skyline and inflow of capital. Dubai is experiencing an unprecedented influx of capital and talent in 2024–2025, solidifying its position as the market leader in global wealth migration. The UAE attracted a net inflow of about 6,700 high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) in 2024 – more than any country worldwide[1]. This trend is accelerating, with 9,800 millionaires projected to relocate to the UAE in 2025 alone[2], as wealthy families seek out Dubai’s stability, favorable tax regime, and investor-friendly residency options (e.g. Golden Visas). Such private wealth migration is unmatched by traditional financial hubs and underscores a “Why now” moment; global investors are actively voting with their feet and funds to be in Dubai.

Foreign direct investment is likewise surging. In 2023, the UAE saw $30.7 billion in FDI inflows, a 35% jump from 2022[3], at a time when global FDI was largely stagnant. This placed the UAE among the top FDI destinations globally (ranked 11th by value)[4]. Dubai itself ranked #1 in the world for greenfield FDI projects in 2023, attracting 1,070 projects – more than double second-place Singapore (442) and third-place London (431)[5]. This record FDI inflow reflects international confidence in Dubai’s growth trajectory and pro-business policies. Aligned with the Dubai Economic Agenda D33 to double the economy by 2033, these investments highlight why Dubai, and why now the emirate’s economy is at an inflection point of robust expansion while many mature markets face headwinds[6]

Dubai thrives in a polarized world and offers a safe haven amid global uncertainty. The UAE’s unique geopolitical stance – maintaining positive relations with the US, China, Russia, and others – underpins its rise. In an era of geopolitical tensions, Dubai remains neutral but “pro-everyone,” much like a new Switzerland. This is bolstered by the UAE’s role in OPEC (supporting the global dollar system) and strategic partnerships. Investors benefit from this stability: the UAE enjoys no sanctions or trade embargoes, and its sovereign credit rating is strong (AA–), reflecting a secure macroeconomic environment[7][8]. Dubai’s open-door pandemic response and status as a safe haven attracted waves of wealthy migrants from the UK, India, Russia, and beyond[9], reinforcing its position as a global safe harbor for capital.

Finally, Dubai’s growth metrics are unparalleled. The city’s population is growing at its fastest pace in history, expanding by over 200,000 people in the last year and nearing 4 million in 2025[10]. This 3.5% annual growth (adding ~567 new residents daily) is doubling Dubai’s population in just 15 years[11][12]. Such explosive demographic and economic growth translates into sustained demand for real assets. From tourism (Dubai welcomed 9.88 million international visitors in H1 2025[13]) to infrastructure (Dubai’s airport handled 92.3 million passengers in 2024, the world’s busiest for international travel[14]), Dubai commands a global mindshare that continually funnels new business and wealth into the city. No other city in the eastern hemisphere pulls mindshare at Dubai’s scale, making it a singularly timely investment destination.

THE COMMERCIAL EDGE

Within Dubai’s real estate boom, the commercial sector offers an edge in yield and growth potential that even the famed residential and hospitality segments can’t match. Dubai is renowned for luxury villas and hotels, but those returns are now eclipsed by the performance of commercial real estate. Several structural factors give Dubai’s commercial property market a competitive edge and barriers to entry that protect outsized returns:

High Entry Barriers:
Acquiring prime commercial assets in Dubai typically requires substantial capital outlay. Unlike residential properties - where mortgages and developer payment plans are common – commercial purchases in key zones often must be done in cash or via specialized financing. Major banks provide limited lending for SME commercial properties, and no installment-payment schemes exist for warehouses or industrial units. This limits buyer competition to well-capitalized investors, creating inefficiency and higher yield opportunities for those who can deploy capital. Gulf Alternatives leverages this by pooling investor funds to access deals beyond the reach of most individual buyers.

Constrained Supply:
Commercial real estate supply is tightly controlled in Dubai. Zoning regulations allow industrial and office activities only in designated districts, which constitute a fraction of the land area compared to residential zones. For example, Al Quoz (the central industrial district, just 10 minutes from Downtown) has finite capacity, and the next closest industrial hubs are 25+ minutes out. Meanwhile, over 100 developers are busy adding residential towers, but few are building new warehouses or office parks – meaning commercial supply growth significantly lags demand. In 2024, demand for quality offices far outpaced supply; Grade A office vacancy fell to ~8–12%, and tenants faced “fierce competition” for space, often renewing leases at higher rents due to lack of alternatives[15]. Limited new stock and high occupancy (over 92% in offices[16]) create a landlord’s market.

Finite Land in Prime Locations: Dubai’s urban planning funnels commercial activity into specific clusters (e.g. industrial zones, free zones, business districts). Unlike residential expansion that can sprawl or go vertical, industrial land near the urban core is effectively finite. As Dubai’s population and businesses grow, this scarcity drives up the value and rents of well-located warehouses, logistics facilities, and office spaces. Industrial land is the new beachfront property. The result is an enduring supply-demand imbalance that underpins strong capital appreciation in commercial assets.

These factors translate into superior risk-adjusted returns. While Dubai residential rentals yield a healthy ~7% on average (among the highest globally)[17], commercial properties can yield well into double-digits. Indeed, net rental yields above 15% are achievable on Dubai industrial assets in prime areas (even before leverage), far surpassing the ~3–5% yields typical in London or Singapore. This commercial edge is why Gulf Alternatives has shifted its proprietary portfolio toward Dubai commercial real estate since 2023 – pivoting from residential where yields plateaued around 7–8%, to commercial deals yielding north of 12–15%.

UNMATCHED LIQUIDITY AND YIELD

For yield-seeking investors, Dubai delivers income and liquidity metrics that few global markets can rival. Average commercial property yields in Dubai range 6%–9%, roughly double those in mature hubs like London (3%–4.5%) or Singapore (3.5%–5%)[19]. This yield premium holds even for core assets; for instance, prime office yields in Dubai are ~5–6%, compared to ~3% in major Western cities[19][20]. Crucially, these Dubai yields are dollarized (the UAE dirham is pegged 1:1 to the USD[21]), meaning investors earn high real returns in hard currency without FX volatility.

Such robust yields are supported by Dubai’s ultra-liquid real estate market. 2024 was a record-breaking year: Dubai saw 226,000 real estate transactions worth AED 761 billion (~USD 207 billion)[22]. That equates to over \$500 million of property changing hands daily – liquidity unheard of in most markets. This was accompanied by a 36% YoY surge in deal volume and 20% YoY rise in value[22], indicating both increasing activity and rising asset prices. Notably, 110,000 new investors entered Dubai’s real estate sector in 2024 (a 55% increase vs 2023)[23], further broadening the buyer pool and liquidity. The market’s depth is also evident in the diversity of transactions – from retail strata sales to multi-billion-dollar M&A deals (e.g. a single Canadian investment of $2.76B in a Dubai entity)[24].

For investors, this liquidity means efficient price discovery and flexible exit options. Large family offices can confidently deploy capital, knowing that Dubai’s property market can absorb big transactions without seizure and that assets can be repatriated or exited on short notice with minimal friction. Dr. Mark Mobius, the veteran emerging-markets investor, recently lauded Dubai’s “amazingly liquid” real estate market[25] – noting that one can buy and sell properties here far more quickly than in other markets, thanks to transparent processes and high demand. He highlighted that $24 billion of property sales were recorded in just Q1 2023 (60% above the prior year)[26], calling Dubai “a unique combination of tax benefits, robust infrastructure, safety, and liquidity” that make it ideal for investment[31].

Importantly, Dubai’s high yields are not a byproduct of excessive risk or leverage, but of strong rental fundamentals. Average office rents jumped ~17% in 2023 amid 90%+ occupancy[16], and industrial rents have been climbing steadily due to the e-commerce and trade boom. These cash flows, combined with zero tax on rental income and dividends, allow Dubai investments to generate generous net yields. Gulf Alternatives targets assets where we can deliver 8–10% cash yield distributions per annum, with potential for value appreciation on exit – a significantly higher income than comparable core assets in Europe or Asia. In short, Dubai offers yield without sacrificing liquidity: a rare combination where investors can earn high-current income and count on an easy, tax-efficient exit

LEGAL AND FISCAL ADVANTAGE

Dubai offers one of the world’s most clear-cut, pro-investor legal and tax regimes, giving family offices the confidence of long-term stability and predictability:

Tax Efficiency: The UAE levies no personal income tax, no capital gains tax, and no estate/inheritance tax on individuals[27]. For corporations, a modest 9% federal tax was introduced only on profits above ~USD 100k in 2023 (and 0% for free-zone entities)[28][29] – still far lower than corporate tax rates in Singapore (17%) or the UK (25%)[30]. VAT is a flat 5% (vs 20% in London)[30]. This means higher net yields for investors: rental income and sale gains flow through almost entirely untaxed. For example, Dubai imposes 0% capital gains tax versus up to 28% in the UK[30] – a decisive advantage in real estate where appreciation is a key part of returns.

Repatriation and FX: Dubai’s financial system features open capital accounts and a stable, USD-pegged currency. There are no restrictions or taxes on profit repatriation – investors can freely move capital and dividends out of the country at any time[21]. The dirham’s peg to the US dollar has held for decades, eliminating currency risk and hedging costs for USD-based investors[21]. This is a critical benefit compared to other emerging markets where FX volatility can erode returns. Family offices in Singapore (often managing multi-currency portfolios) particularly appreciate that a Dubai asset’s income stream in AED is as good as dollars, providing a natural hedge for USD liabilities.

Legal Clarity & Property Rights: The UAE boasts a strong legal framework for property and investments. Dubai has a 20-year track record of guaranteeing foreign freehold ownership in designated areas and upholding contract enforcement through courts. Notably, Dubai hosts common-law jurisdictions like DIFC Courts which use English law, giving international investors additional comfort for dispute resolution. The result is an impeccable property rights record – there have been no expropriations or arbitrary changes to foreign ownership rules. In 2021, the UAE even removed the requirement for onshore companies to have local sponsors, allowing 100% foreign ownership in most sectors[31][32]. The World Bank and World Economic Forum have consistently ranked the UAE top in the region for regulatory ease and competitiveness[33]. For investors, this means long-term certainty: assets are held in transparent title registry, leases are enforceable, and exit procedures are straightforward. Gulf Alternatives’ investments also utilize structures in Dubai’s free zones (like DIFC/ADGM) that offer internationally recognized legal frameworks and 50-year guarantees of zero taxes.

Stability and Governance: Dubai’s governance model provides a unique kind of stability. As an absolute monarchy with a business-centric vision, policy can be long-term and decisively pro-investor. The ruling government has reiterated its commitment to open markets, minimal taxation, and innovation-friendly regulations for decades, and these policies do not seesaw with election cycles. The UAE’s leadership (backed by substantial sovereign wealth) acts as a guarantor of the economic environment’s continuity. In practical terms, investors face far less political risk: there is no risk of sudden populist tax hikes or capital controls. Dubai’s judicial system, bolstered by special economic zone courts, ensures contract sanctity. This political and legal stability is a key differentiator versus other high-yield markets which often carry regime or policy change risk.

In summation, Dubai offers first-world investor protections in a zero-tax environment. Family offices can deploy capital knowing that the “rules of the game” won’t unexpectedly change and that the fiscal setup maximizes their net returns. This legal/fiscal advantage, combined with Dubai’s hard infrastructure, makes it arguably the most investor-friendly real estate market globally.

WHAT MAKES DUBAI DIFFERENT

Dubai isn’t just another city on the rise – it is fundamentally reimagining what an international investment hub can be. Several factors set Dubai apart from other markets family offices might consider:

Visionary Leadership & Sovereign Backing: Dubai’s growth is strategic, not accidental. The emirate’s leadership (architects of plans like Dubai Economic Agenda D33) actively directs resources to double the economy and make Dubai a top-3 global city by 2033[34]. Execution of this vision is underpinned by vast financial strength. The UAE’s various sovereign wealth funds now hold approximately \$2.5 trillion in assets, making it the world’s 3rd-largest sovereign investor (behind only the US and China)[35][36]. This means an unparalleled buffer and commitment to long-term development. During the 2020 crisis, for example, these funds and government initiatives kept liquidity flowing and mega-projects on track. Investors in Dubai thus partner with a country-sized balance sheet indirectly supporting the market.

Global Connectivity & Mindshare: Dubai has deliberately positioned itself as a global crossroads of commerce and travel. Dubai International Airport (DXB) has been the world’s busiest airport for international passengers for a decade[14] – in 2024 it handled 92 million passengers, far eclipsing other hubs. Emirates Airline’s worldwide network and Dubai’s tourist appeal (Dubai Mall draws 80+ million visitors annually) ensure that the city is constantly in the global spotlight[37][38]. This creates a self-reinforcing cycle: high exposure leads to more business and talent attraction, which leads to more exposure. In today’s era of narrative-driven capital flows, Dubai dominates mindshare among emerging markets. It’s often the first (and sometimes only) Middle Eastern city on the radar of international investors, which funnels disproportionate capital and talent to it. The city’s bold initiatives – from hosting Expo 2020 to building fintech and AI hubs – keep it ahead of the curve and in the news as a place where “the future” is happening. For family offices, this global mindshare means liquidity and exit options will only grow over time, as more institutions allocate to Dubai.

East-Meets-West Advantage: Dubai offers an East-Meets-West value proposition that few cities can. It provides the security, rule of law, and lifestyle of a Western metropolis, combined with the growth and market access of an emerging economy. One can fly from Dubai to one-third of the world’s population in 4 hours – it sits at the center of emerging market trade routes. It’s in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the new hotspot for private wealth[39], but also deeply connected to Asia, Africa, and Europe. Culturally, Dubai is international (90% expatriate population[40]) yet regionally plugged-in. This gives it a “best of both worlds” character. No capital in Asia or the Middle East has Dubai’s combination of cosmopolitan openness, safety, and neutrality. For example, Dubai can welcome Russian, Chinese, American, Indian, and European investors all at once, a neutrality that even Singapore cannot to the same extent in today’s geopolitical climate. This diversity broadens the investor base and resilience of the market.

Safety and Quality of Life: Family offices consider not just the investment in isolation, but also the environment for their teams and families. Dubai ranks as one of the safest cities globally, with very low crime rates. It offers a high-quality lifestyle – from world-class schools and healthcare to leisure – which is a magnet for talent. Even as a financial hub, it has managed to remain clean, efficient, and relatively easy to navigate. The importance of this human factor cannot be overstated: many business owners and family principals are choosing to relocate to Dubai (or spend significant time there) because it’s an enjoyable place to live. This personal affinity further cements long-term capital flows into the city; once investors put down roots, their capital often follows into local assets. Dubai’s “live, work, play” ecosystem for global elites is arguably second to none.

Innovative, Entrepreneurial Ecosystem: Dubai’s government is run with a start-up mentality – always iterating new initiatives to attract business. Whether it’s special visas for entrepreneurs, crypto-friendly regulations, or green economy incentives, the city is quick to adapt. The result is an ever-diversifying economic base (tech, media, logistics, finance) which supports the real estate sector. For example, in 2024 over 70,000 new companies were registered in Dubai[41], including many hedge funds and fintech firms drawn by new regulations. This entrepreneurial dynamism means commercial real estate demand is multi-faceted and future-proof – it’s not just about the current cycle but about capturing growth in nascent sectors too. Dubai is already a leading hub for wealth management in the region (800+ family offices in DIFC in 2024[48]), and it’s aiming to be a global tech and sustainability hub next. Gulf Alternatives believes this innovation culture will drive superior long-term performance for Dubai assets, as new industries and entrants continually spur demand.

In short, Dubai differentiates itself through a rare combination of vision, stability, inclusivity, and momentum. It is positioning not just to participate in the future, but to define the future of global cities. For investors who align with this trajectory, the upside is not just financial but strategic – being part of the growth story of “the next global center.”

INVESTOR MOMENTUM AND MINDSHARE

The momentum behind Dubai’s commercial real estate is reflected in its rapidly expanding investor base and mindshare among the global elite. Dubai has become a fixture in discussions of portfolio allocation for family offices, and the evidence is in the numbers:

Family Office Influx: Wealth managers are increasingly basing operations in Dubai. Over 200 new family offices set up in Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) in 2024 alone, bringing the total to 800+ family offices in that zone[42]. This is in addition to those in other free zones and mainland – a testament to Dubai’s emergence as the “Singapore of the Middle East” for wealth management. High-profile examples include hedge fund billionaire Michael Platt relocating his family office to Dubai in 2025[43], and Indian telecom scion Shravin Mittal establishing his investment firm’s branch in Abu Dhabi in 2025[33]. Such moves by marquee investors signal confidence and attract follow-on investments into local real estate (as offices, homes, and lifestyle needs translate to property demand). It also means our co-investor universe in any deal is deep – global family offices are actively seeking Dubai opportunities, providing partnership and exit prospects.

Institutional Capital & Partnerships: It’s not just individuals – institutional investors are now firmly in play. Major global firms (Brookfield, BlackRock, etc.) have been involved in headline Dubai deals, such as Brookfield’s $2.7B acquisition of a UAE payments firm in 2023[24], or partnering on infrastructure and logistics assets. Sovereign wealth funds from across Asia and the GCC are co-investing in Dubai projects. The city’s robust REIT and capital markets framework (e.g. Nasdaq Dubai listings) is developing, which will further institutionalize the market. Investor momentum breeds liquidity and valuation transparency, creating a virtuous cycle for real estate values. Gulf Alternatives has on-ground relationships that tap into this rising tide of capital, often giving us a first look at off-market deals due to our local network and reputation.

Media & Mindshare: Dubai’s success stories are making headlines worldwide, reinforcing positive sentiment. In recent years, headlines like “Dubai real estate hits record highs”, “Dubai named top global property investment hotspot”, and “Millionaires Flock to Dubai” have become common in the Financial Times, Bloomberg, and CNBC. This media narrative matters: in the age of information, investor mindshare is a valuable asset. Dubai currently owns a big chunk of the mindshare around high-growth cities. For example, the Henley Wealth Migration Report notes Dubai has “doubled its millionaire population in a decade”[45]. Such data points circulate widely in investment circles, prompting even traditionally cautious investors to “get in on the action.” There is a palpable buzz about Dubai, and we see it in inquiries from family offices who a few years ago wouldn’t consider the Middle East, now actively seeking exposure. Gulf Alternatives leverages this momentum by preparing assets for eventual disposition into this growing demand – whether via public market exits (REITs/IPOs) or sales to incoming institutional investors.

Government Initiatives Fueling Mindshare: The leadership’s marketing of Dubai as the world’s opportunity city is effective. Mega events like Expo 2020 (and upcoming COP28) showcased Dubai’s capabilities. Meanwhile, initiatives like granting 10-year Golden Visas to investors, remote work visas, and retirement visas are drawing a broader community of global professionals. Dubai’s international mindshare is further amplified by its tourism dominance – in 2023 it was the world’s most visited city by international tourists, and in 2024 it is on track to break records again[13]. Every tourist or executive who visits is a potential future investor, and Dubai converts a good number of them (as evidenced by visitor numbers translating into new residents). This pipeline of interest keeps the market buoyant and expands our pool of buyers for assets down the line.

In conclusion, investor momentum is firmly on Dubai’s side. Family offices from East and West, institutions large and small, and even the media narrative all point to Dubai as the “next big thing” in global real estate. For yield-focused investors, this means getting in now offers not only strong current income but also the prospect of multiple expansion as more capital competes for Dubai assets. The mindshare Dubai commands is perhaps its most under-appreciated asset – it ensures that the best and brightest are thinking about Dubai, talking about Dubai, and ultimately investing in Dubai.

TARGET TIKET SIZE & ALLOCATION

For interested family offices, Gulf Alternatives would recommend a target allocation that reflects Dubai’s outsized potential. We would suggest an initial tranche into our Dubai CRE strategy, which can meaningfully move the needle on portfolio yield without undue concentration risk. Given Dubai’s low correlation with Western markets and its dollar peg, this allocation serves as both a growth play and an inflation hedge (via real assets) in a broader portfolio context.

THE THESIS IN SUMMARY

Dubai’s commercial real estate offers a rare convergence of high yield and high growth in a jurisdiction built for investors. The thesis for investing now can be summarized as follows: Superior Yield: Double-digit, dollar-pegged yields in a market where peers offer low single digits[18].Capital Safety: A stable currency, political environment, and legal system ensuring investment security[21].

Growth Upside: An economy and population expanding at breakneck speed, driving demand (Dubai added 134k residents in 2024 alone[11] and hit record FDI inflows[3]).Liquidity & Exit: An ultra-liquid property market (over $200B in annual transactions[22]) with a growing global buyer pool ensures flexibility in exit timing and strategy. Structural Edge: Supply constraints and high entry barriers in commercial segments protect against oversupply and preserve pricing power for landlords[15].

Tax & Regulatory Edge: Virtually tax-free income and robust investor protections mean higher net returns and peace of mind[27][32].

Alignment with Megatrends: Dubai aligns with major trends – wealth migration, geopolitical diversification, and the rise of new economic centers – positioning it for sustained inflows of capital and talent[1].

In summary, “Why Dubai, Why Now” is answered by Dubai’s emergence as the world’s preeminent high-growth, high-yield real estate market. Gulf Alternatives invites you to join us in capturing these double-digit, dollarized returns in the world’s most tax-friendly environment, through its most lucrative segment: Dubai commercial real estate.

We believe this thesis will not only deliver superior financial performance but also give our investors front-row participation in one of the most exciting economic success stories of our time.